Looking back on the history of human media changes, Internet scholar Kevin Kelly once divided the dependence between the public and the information carrier into "the people of speech" (content dissemination mainly comes from oral civilization), the "people of books" (calculated from Gutenberg printing) that began more than 500 years ago, and the "people of screen" (from now to the future) Screen), the world's screen is becoming ubiquitous, occupying almost everyone's waking hours - and in a variety of different ways and ways.
In the era of screen reading, although smart phones firmly occupy the position of "the first screen", at the moment when the competition for public attention has entered a white hot stage, the market has increasingly evolved a variety of different screen patterns, and "screen people" can live in more and more places.
Especially in the living room.
Maybe it's because this is the place where people spend their time at will after work (which will certainly bring more high-quality traffic). The living room economy is becoming a fertile traffic soil, and the coexistence of multiple terminals is becoming increasingly significant. TV, computer, mobile phone, tablet computer Various "screen species" evolved in turn began to compete in the living room environment.
In recent years, under various social factors such as living conditions and single economy, family intelligent projection has become the fastest-growing screen. Under the background of the blowout of comprehensive content of film and television, by weighing all kinds of constraints, intelligent projection has constantly developed its strengths and circumvented its weaknesses, which has cleverly met the trend of large screen entertainment in living room. According to AVC, the retail volume of China's smart projection market last year was 2.612 million (it's just over 700000 in 2016), while in the past 618 period, the sales volume of China's smart projection market was 32000, up 87% year on year, and the sales volume was 700 million yuan, up 106% year on year.




All kinds of signs show that from strangeness to prosperity, from narrow crowd to small crowd and even the public, intelligent projection is gradually moving towards the "mainstream".
It's more like another driving force in the process of "close up". Recently, there's a big news in the projection circle: not long ago, Epson announced to officially enter the field of home intelligent projection, and released the world's first laser 3lcd intelligent projector Epson Fun series with mango TV.
It may be difficult for ordinary consumers to catch the waves of this news in the industry, but as far as I know, as early as in the hearsay stage, it has triggered a private hot debate in the circle. After all, many manufacturers are tacit. As the current industry leader, Epson has maintained the first market share of global projectors for 18 consecutive years. More importantly, it is also the owner of 3lcd technology.
I've heard from an insider that when it invests in the intelligent projection market, it may become a variable to break the "balance" of the industry, which will certainly have a significant impact on domestic manufacturers.
Well, in the past few years, intelligent projection has become the only exciting new force in the whole projection market. The outstanding performance of last year's Jimi projection in sales volume is a strong evidence. However, this year, Epson is coming here, following the wave of consumption upgrading, trying to cut into the market from the middle and high-end consumer groups. Can it achieve what it wants?
It starts with the whole industry.
One
E.M. Rogers, an American scholar, once put forward the famous theory of innovation diffusion. According to his classification and statistics, people have the same attitude towards new categories, which can be divided into five types: innovators, product tasters, early masses, late masses and laggards. Their "sensitivity" to new and fresh things is decreasing. Due to information asymmetry and other reasons, there is a cognitive gap between the minority and the public for those new products that seem to be "not just needed". Once the gap is crossed, the speed of product diffusion will increase in vain.
It's not hard to find that projecting the above theories to the intelligent projection market, this category has been first accepted by "innovators" and "product tasters", and because these users have tasted its sweetness (watching movies with intelligent projection basically belongs to the series of "don't go back when you use them"), they not only complete the cognitive iteration of this new category, but also are willing to treat other technology products as well Products complete product replacement, they constitute the stock market of home intelligent projection.
But the industry consensus is that the future of intelligent projection is incremental market.
Thanks to the excellent market education work of nuts and Jimi, the cognitive baptism of the past few years has made intelligent projection in the process of "crossing the gap", and the market maturity is faster than expected. According to the forecast of Ovi cloud, the sales volume of intelligent projection market in 2019 will reach 4.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The sales volume is expected to be 9.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 50%. There are even many optimists who put forward the growth ambition of more than 5 million sets per year.
Of course, compared with the total scale of 50 million sets in the color TV market, there is still a gap in the size of intelligent projection distance in the real sense of "mass market". However, with the gradual limited growth of traditional audio-visual equipment, intelligent projection may further release the market increment. What's more, as a microcosmic reflection of "post modern" countries, compared with developed countries in Europe and America, Chinese consumers are generally more sensitive to new technology categories, and the transition from small-scale tasters to mass consumers is more smooth.
More importantly, compared with the high-end trend of China's electrical appliance market (especially in the field of small electrical appliances) in recent years, in the context of consumption upgrading, more families no longer blindly follow the low price, especially in the treatment of new products, the consumer groups represented by the new middle class are more and more inclined to "one step in place".
To sum up, in terms of industry logic, no matter the stock market or the incremental market, the starting track of home intelligent projection is not only not closed, but also wider and wider.
Two
However, at the practical end, when people want a real "investment" in their good high-end products, there are not too many options, no matter in the stock market or in the incremental market, no matter in upgrading or in one step.
Why is that?
In terms of data alone, in 2018, China's smart projection market grew by 102% year on year, with retail sales of 5.95 billion yuan, up 121% year on year - but in many people's eyes, this may be an "irrational prosperity", seemingly prosperous, but internally empty.
One of the evidences is that last year, the number of brands on sale in China's smart projection market actually reached 151. This year, there are also nearly 500 products of 111 brands participating in the 618 promotion, and there is only a limited space of a million scale in the volume, which is neither bloody nor normal. It is more like a side effect brought by the rapid development of the market: under the game of capital power and market environment, the homogeneity of home intelligent projection products is serious, and the price war is full of smoke, especially in the "thousand yuan position" of blood sea, which is extremely crowded.
In my opinion, today's smart projection market is like yesterday's smart speaker market. About four or five years ago, hundreds of smart speaker manufacturers emerged in Nanshan District of Shenzhen, and now many of them have disappeared. This is because the science and technology industry follows a set of business logic: in the long run, the excessively sharp price war will not only damage the positive development of the industry, fall into a vicious circle, but also the potential damage to the user's consumption value. So in my opinion, driven by new variables such as consumption changes and technological changes, the intelligent projection industry is bound to usher in a turning point of old and new. In the second half of 2019, "upgrade" will become the key word of intelligent projection Market